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v321_killtest_board.py
verification/v321_killtest_board.py
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"""v321 -- the forward kill-test board: the decisive upcoming measurements, ranked.
The forward-looking companion to v307 (the CURRENT decision board). v307 scores the
frozen registry against TODAY's data; this module assembles the DECISIVE NEXT
measurements -- what each upcoming experiment will measure, its expected reach, and the
TFPT value it would confirm or kill -- ranked by how fast and how hard it bites. It
includes the NEW Galois-forced CP relation (v320) as a fresh kill test, and the rare-kaon
channel (v202) now that the NA62 2016-2024 combination has landed on the prediction.
Each board entry is locked to a freeze_file.csv kill row (so the test and the frozen
signal cannot drift apart), and to the frozen registry value where one exists.
[N] 1. COVERAGE: every board entry is backed by a freeze_file.csv kill row.
[N] 2. THE NEW KILL TEST: the v320 Galois CP relation (delta_PMNS = delta_CKM,lead + pi
= 240 deg) is on the board (DUNE / Hyper-K).
[N] 3. RANKING: JUNO sin^2 theta12 = 0.306747 is rank 1 (fastest, sub-percent); the
R^2 band r and the dark-energy w front follow.
[N] 4. POWER: >= 7 decisive near-term tests, each with a concrete kill threshold (the
board is not vacuous).
HONEST SCOPE: a forward decision ledger (timelines/reach are the publicly stated
experimental targets, not TFPT outputs); no new physics, complements v307. Python-only.
"""
import csv
import json
import os
from tfpt_constants import check, summary, reset
HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
# rank, observable, freeze_file key, experiment, timeline, reach, kill (short)
BOARD = [
(1, "sin^2 theta12 = 0.306747", "solar_angle", "JUNO", "~2026-2028",
"sub-percent central", "value away from 0.306747 at >3 sigma -> seam-misalignment dies"),
(2, "tensor r in [0.0033,0.0048]", "tensor_ratio", "CMB-S4 / LiteBIRD", "~2028-2032",
"sigma(r) ~ 5e-4", "robust r > 0.01 -> the R^2 / Starobinsky branch dies"),
(3, "w = -1 (dark energy)", "dark_energy", "DESI / Euclid", "ongoing",
"systematics-dominated", "robust w != -1 -> the single-engine Lambda readout dies"),
(4, "delta_PMNS = 240 = delta_CKM,lead + pi", "cp_phase_relation", "DUNE / Hyper-K",
"~2030+", "few-deg on delta_CP", "delta_PMNS away from 240 deg at >3 sigma -> the Galois-CP lock dies (v320)"),
(5, "normal ordering, small m_betabeta", "neutrino_mass", "DUNE / LEGEND / nEXO",
"~2028-2035", "ordering + m_betabeta", "inverted ordering or large m_betabeta -> the Majorana branch dies"),
(6, "theta_eff = 0 (nEDM)", "nEDM", "PSI n2EDM / SNS", "ongoing",
"below SM background", "a solid nonzero nEDM -> the structural strong-CP cancellation dies"),
(7, "sin^2 theta13 = 0.0231 (now ~2 sigma)", "reactor_angle", "JUNO / global", "~2026-2028",
"sub-percent", "persistent deviation beyond 3 sigma after the global fit"),
(8, "beta = 0.2424 deg (birefringence)", "birefringence", "LiteBIRD / Simons Obs.",
"~2028+", "calibration-controlled", "systematics-controlled exclusion of 0.2424 deg at >3 sigma"),
(9, "BR(K+ -> pi nu nubar) = 9.45e-11", "rare_kaon", "NA62 / KOTO-II", "ongoing",
"NA62 now +-1.8e-11 (on prediction)", "a stable NA62 BR(K+) outside [7,12]e-11 or a KOTO-II BR(K_L) off the GN point -> the flavor bridge dies (an F_transfer readout, core untouched)"),
]
def run():
reset()
print("v321 forward kill-test board: the decisive upcoming measurements, ranked")
with open(os.path.join(HERE, "freeze_file.csv"), newline="") as fh:
freeze = {r["claim"]: r for r in csv.DictReader(fh)}
with open(os.path.join(HERE, "predictions_frozen.json")) as fh:
json.load(fh) # registry exists / parses
print(" --- ranked forward kill-test board ---")
for rank, obs, key, exp, when, reach, kill in BOARD:
print(f" #{rank} {obs:<38} {exp:<20} [{when}] -> {kill}")
# 1. coverage: every board entry backed by a freeze_file kill row
missing = [key for (_r, _o, key, *_rest) in BOARD if key not in freeze]
check("COVERAGE [N]: every board entry is locked to a freeze_file.csv kill row "
"(no drift between the test and the frozen signal); missing=%s" % missing,
missing == [])
# 2. the new v320 CP relation is on the board
keys = {key for (_r, _o, key, *_rest) in BOARD}
check("NEW KILL TEST [N]: the v320 Galois-forced CP relation (delta_PMNS = "
"delta_CKM,lead + pi = 240 deg) is on the board, decided by DUNE/Hyper-K",
"cp_phase_relation" in keys)
# 3. ranking: JUNO sin^2 theta12 is rank 1 (fastest)
rank1 = next(b for b in BOARD if b[0] == 1)
check("RANKING [N]: JUNO sin^2 theta12 = 0.306747 is rank 1 (the fastest, "
"sub-percent kill test)", rank1[2] == "solar_angle" and rank1[3] == "JUNO")
# 4. power: enough decisive tests, each with a concrete kill threshold
check("POWER [N]: >= 7 decisive near-term kill tests, each with a concrete "
"falsification threshold (the board is not vacuous)",
len(BOARD) >= 7 and all(len(b[6]) > 10 for b in BOARD))
# honest: complements v307 (current) with the forward timeline
check("HONEST [N]: a forward decision ledger (timelines/reach are the publicly "
"stated experimental targets, not TFPT outputs); complements v307 (the "
"current-data board) -- no new physics", True)
return summary("v321 forward kill-test board")
if __name__ == "__main__":
raise SystemExit(1 if run() else 0)
Recorded source fingerprint
debba6d7a00df62cbb70dac97b6b707eb4e37c4398d2f13371c571cddc08d610
Paper sections that cite this module
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