A registered result in its source context
Original ledger classification: Open (statistics-construction contract; v1 executed [N]; promotion conditions typed)
Recorded statement: THE JOINT LIKELIHOOD CONTRACT [O] (registered 2026-08-27; from hit-counting to overdetermined relations). The 27+ individually matched values descend from the same few atoms (phi_0, c_3, g_car, mu_4) and are statistically CORRELATED:…
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Paper context: Research contracts
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PRED.JOINTLIKELIHOOD.01
Original ledger classification: Open (statistics-construction contract; v1 executed [N]; promotion conditions typed)
Original claim text
THE JOINT LIKELIHOOD CONTRACT [O] (registered 2026-08-27; from hit-counting to overdetermined relations). The 27+ individually matched values descend from the same few atoms (phi_0, c_3, g_car, mu_4) and are statistically CORRELATED: counting hits overstates independent evidence. DEMAND: reorganize the evidence into overdetermined relation bundles, each carried by one proof object -- (i) the flavor invariant sum rule (one spurion/operator proof yielding theta_12, theta_13, delta_PMNS, J_PMNS, mass splittings and the CKM texture TOGETHER); (ii) the inflation consistency relation r = 3(1 - n_s)^2, alpha_s = -r/6 (eliminating N_star); (iii) the axion/birefringence bundle from ONE normalized axion action with the OBS.TRANSDUCTION.01 chain; (iv) the character-resolved transfer signature. STATISTICAL DEMAND: a joint likelihood over the frozen registry with the full atom-induced covariance matrix, the EFFECTIVE number of degrees of freedom (not the raw hit count), a prespecified null space and formula-selection rule, and a genuine holdout dataset (future measurements only). HONEST READING of the existing null test: the '13/13, < 1e-30' Monte-Carlo statement (v100) quantifies the look-elsewhere burden UNDER ITS DECLARED NULL MODEL and is only interpretable as evidence to the extent that null space, formula grammar and development data were prespecified -- which for historically known observables they were not and cannot retroactively be; the 2026-06-09 freeze (v84) genuinely protects FUTURE measurements, it does not turn historically known data into blind predictions. docs/FALSIFICATION.md wording adjusted in the same change (honest, not weakened: freeze and kill tests stand). EXECUTED UPDATE (2026-08-28, v992): v1 joint likelihood over nine frozen pull-matched scorecard triplets -- chi2 = 11.80 / dof 9 (p = 0.225), nu_eff = rank(J_atom) = 1, TFPT at 0th percentile of 200 scrambled decoders, LOO stable. Holdouts declared not consumed: JUNO Delta m^2, DESI Sigma m_nu, DUNE delta_CP, LiteBIRD r. v1 declarations: Sigma_exp diagonal (NuFIT/Planck covariances UNMODELLED, flagged); Sigma_bridge = Sigma_th = 0. PROMOTION CONDITIONS for full closure: off-diagonal Sigma, formula-grammar census, genuine future holdouts. Contract stays [O]. Python-only / Wolfram mirror deferred.
Original classification detail
Open: joint likelihood with atom-induced covariance, effective dof, prespecified null + formula grammar, real holdout. EXECUTED [N] (v992): v1 chi2=11.80/9, p=0.225, nu_eff=1, 0th percentile of 200 scrambled decoders, LOO stable; promotion conditions typed. Display marker stays Open.
Dependencies as recorded
v84 (frozen registry); v100 (null MC, reinterpreted); v375 (scorecard); OBS.TRANSDUCTION.01
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- Research contracts
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- =150 2026-08-27 (CXXXI) (the external deep-review round — dimension / dynamics / gravity firewalls and the 4D construction ladder: the review diagnosis ``chiral [formula in source] D seam net [formula in source] local, interacting [formula in source] D quantum world'' is implemented as eight new contract IDs in tfpt_research_contracts plus one new load-bearing module. (1) DIMENSION.UPLIFT.FIREWALL.01 (standing rule, in force): no [formula in source] D theorem closes a [formula in source] D claim; every contract closure states the spacetime dimension of hypotheses AND conclusion; audit census recorded (SEAM.EQUIV.01 is [formula in source] D in and out — even fully proved it is a boundary building block, not the 4D theory; the v957 kinematic uplift does not close it; the anomaly-inflow bulk is invertible/topological, never to be silently equated with physical spacetime); the realistic route ordering (seam as boundary module [formula in source] genuine 4D Euclidean lattice [formula in source] OS package [formula in source] chirality/no-mirror [formula in source] only then BW/CHM [formula in source] entanglement gravity [formula in source] bulk–seam equivalence) is registered as the programme skeleton. (2) SEAM.BULK4D.RECON.01 : the previously implicit seam [formula in source] bulk theorem made explicit (4D local algebras/Schwinger functions; locality/microlocality, Poincar\'e covariance [formula in source] spectrum condition, spin-statistics [formula in source] CPT, both helicities, clustering, nontrivial S-matrix, unique operator dictionary). (3) the dynamics split DYN.MARKOV.EMBED.01 / DYN.UNITARY.DILATION.01 (``three meanings of dynamics'': relaxation [formula in source] / dissipative semigroup [formula in source] / unitary [formula in source] ): the finite kernel half of MARKOV.EMBED is executed \ as v971_markov_embedding_generator.py ( [formula in source] , sympy-exact) — [formula in source] of the v221 seam kernel is an EXACT classical Markov generator: [formula in source] by spectral calculus, row sums symbolically zero, off-diagonals exactly [formula in source] (the reviewer's independently verified numbers), uniformization certificate [formula in source] entrywise [formula in source] [formula in source] positivity-preserving doubly stochastic for all [formula in source] , [formula in source] (gap [formula in source] ), negative control: second eigenvalue [formula in source] gives [formula in source] — provably NOT embeddable; the field level and the local size-consistent unitary dilation (Stinespring [formula in source] Lieb–Robinson [formula in source] OS continuation) stay ; binding precision: the shared F_transfer relaxation shape is a universal CONTRACTION CLASS, not one physical clock (v723/v724/v777). (4) QFT4D.OS.RECON.01 \ (the genuine 4D Euclidean lattice OS package) with the binding phrasing rule: the v381 all-orders leg is a local perturbative construction under the stated EG/BRST hypotheses (Duch weak adiabatic limit cited, hypotheses unverified for the concrete model; no confinement / mass gap / asymptotic charged states / nonperturbative Higgs vacuum / full S-matrix follows) — tfpt_2 and tfpt_5 phrasing restricted accordingly. (5) CHIRAL4D.NOMIRROR.01 \ (explicit GW/overlap chiral lattice operator; local gauge-invariant measure, perturbative [formula in source] global anomaly freedom, no Witten [formula in source] anomaly, no mirrors, correct index/charges, stable continuum limit; Mastropietro arXiv:2303.02790 as calibration). (6) GRAV.NONCIRCULAR.01 (standing rule, in force): BW is a theorem WITHIN a local Poincar\'e-covariant QFT (Mund/Morinelli counterexample landscape cited), never a generator of Lorentz spacetime from a modular flow; every BW/CHM use declares assumption-vs-result; audit census: the entanglement-equilibrium Einstein derivation (v323/v358/v359) is typed ASSUMPTION (conditional on the 4D package, never citable as evidence for it), QG.AMB.01 correctly declared, the seam KMS [formula in source] chain dimension-typed, the intrinsic-BW programme the honest result-direction attempt. (7) OBS.TRANSDUCTION.01: the transduction principle (internal eigenvalue [formula in source] nonvanishing projection [formula in source] [formula in source] physical coupling [formula in source] observable signature; without the middle arrow neither non-observation falsifies nor observation confirms; minimal model machine-checked at exploration level in fo01, uniform functional blind to [formula in source] , character channel recovers [formula in source] to [formula in source] ; the ACT [formula in source] Planck birefringence proximity typed coincidence-level pending the shared-action proof). (8) PRED.JOINTLIKELIHOOD.01 : evidence reorganized from hit-counting into overdetermined relation bundles (flavor sum rule; [formula in source] , [formula in source] ; one normalized axion action; character-resolved transfer) with the statistical demand (joint likelihood, atom-induced covariance, effective dof, prespecified null [formula in source] formula grammar, real holdout); the v100 ``13/13, [formula in source] '' statement retyped as a look-elsewhere quantifier under its declared null — the 2026-06-09 freeze protects FUTURE measurements, it does not retroactively make historically known data blind. Docs corrected in the same change: docs/OPEN_PROBLEMS.md (the Einstein-derivation overstatement rewritten to the conditional Jacobson-route typing with the explicit does-NOT-follow list; ``zero open internal mechanisms'' fixed to match the contract scope fence — ledger wins; the all-orders phrasing restricted) and docs/FALSIFICATION.md (the null-model section retitled and rescoped, freeze and kill tests unchanged). Ledger [formula in source] rows; suite [formula in source] modules; bash build.sh audit and the manifest regeneration are the joint exit gate)Research changelog; TFPT — Introduction and reading guide
- Research Programme — the TFPT4D master route (one 4D transfer object instead of twenty formulas)tfpt research contracts
- Research Contract — TFPT.TOE.COMPLETE.01 (the named AND of eight completeness gates)tfpt research contracts
- Research Programme — the TFPT4D master route (one 4D transfer object instead of twenty formulas)tfpt research contracts
- Research Contract — PRED.JOINTLIKELIHOOD.01 (from hit-counting to overdetermined relations)tfpt research contracts
- Research Contract — PRED.JOINTLIKELIHOOD.01 (from hit-counting to overdetermined relations)Research contracts
- Front matter / supportTFPT — Introduction and reading guide; Verification reference catalog
- Research Contract — TFPT.TOE.COMPLETE.01 (the named AND of eight completeness gates)Research contracts
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Registered verification modules
- v992_joint_likelihood_v1.pyRegistered verification module · frontier
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