A registered result in its source context
Original ledger classification: Data-confrontation [N]/[E]/[X] (mild +1.7-2.0 sigma; within 3 sigma; JUNO decides)
Recorded statement: THE THETA13 SUB-LEADING BUDGET vs the current global fit (2026-06-22): the +2 sigma pressure point (v328) quantified against BOTH NuFIT 6.0 normal-ordering variants and JUNO; neither defuses nor excludes -- fences correctly. [N]…
Statement, assumptions and sources
Paper context: Standard Model and flavor structure
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THETA13.BUDGET.01
Original ledger classification: Data-confrontation [N]/[E]/[X] (mild +1.7-2.0 sigma; within 3 sigma; JUNO decides)
Original claim text
THE THETA13 SUB-LEADING BUDGET vs the current global fit (2026-06-22): the +2 sigma pressure point (v328) quantified against BOTH NuFIT 6.0 normal-ordering variants and JUNO; neither defuses nor excludes -- fences correctly. [N] SK-DEPENDENT TENSION: sin^2 theta13 = phi0 e^{-5/6} = 0.023108 is +2.0 sigma vs the no-SK central (0.02195 +- 0.00058) and +1.7 sigma vs the with-SK NO best fit (0.02215 +- 0.00057) -- a ~0.3 sigma spread from one systematic, NOT a clean 2 sigma. [E] WITHIN 3 SIGMA: 0.023108 < the with-SK 3 sigma upper bound 0.02388, INSIDE the allowed region (not falsified). [N] SUB-LEADING BUDGET: moving 0.023108 to the with-SK central needs d(sin^2 theta13) = -0.00096 (-4.1%); RG running < 1% and the exponent 5/6 is exact, so ~3% would need a sub-leading channel larger than natural -- no freeze-respecting relief (v328). [X] JUNO DECIDES: sub-1% precision on sin^2 2theta13 (sigma ~ 1.5e-4) turns 1.7-2.0 sigma into ~6 sigma either way -- near-term pre-registered kill/confirm. [E] one honest pressure point (v306 seed-hyperplane outlier, v328), correctly fenced.
Original classification detail
[N] the data-confrontation (repo-documented NuFIT 6.0 centrals, both variants) + the budget arithmetic; [E] the within-3-sigma check; [X] the JUNO kill. Does not change the frozen prediction.
Dependencies as recorded
THETA13.PRESSURE.01; v306; v328; REG.FREEZE.01
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- Standard Model and flavor structure
Sections that explicitly cite this claim
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- Front matter / supportTFPT — Introduction and reading guide; Verification reference catalog
- 2026-06-22 (next-steps round: the one open lemma literature-anchored, the Decoupling Theorem, the holomorphy discriminator hardened in Lean, and the [formula in source] budget: v336, v337, v338, FORM.CARTAN.DET.01)Research changelog; TFPT — Introduction and reading guide
Navigation through a shared verification script
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- 2026-07-01 ( v465 — the cross-sector one-parameter seed test: a CMB birefringence angle and a quark Cabibbo angle point to the same seed within [formula in source] , the [formula in source] -independent externally-runnable slice of v306)Research changelog; TFPT — Introduction and reading guide
- Neutrinostfpt 2 standard model
- NeutrinosStandard Model and flavor structure
Registered verification modules
- v338_theta13_budget.pyRegistered verification module · neutrinos
Read the description recorded in the module registry
THETA13.BUDGET.01: the theta13 sub-leading budget vs the current global fit -- the +2 sigma pressure point (v328) quantified against BOTH NuFIT 6.0 NO variants and JUNO; neither defuses nor excludes, fences correctly. [N] SK-DEPENDENT TENSION: sin^2 theta13 = phi0 e^{-5/6} = 0.023108 is +2.0 sigma vs the no-SK central (0.02195) and +1.7 sigma vs the with-SK NO best fit (0.02215) -- NOT a clean 2 sigma. [E] WITHIN 3 SIGMA: 0.023108 < the with-SK 3 sigma upper 0.02388 (not falsified). [N] BUDGET: moving to the central needs -4.1%; RG < 1% and the exponent 5/6 is exact => no freeze-respecting relief (v328). [X] JUNO DECIDES: sub-1% precision turns 1.7-2.0 sigma into ~6 sigma -- near-term pre-registered kill/confirm. One honest pressure point (v306/v328), fenced.
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