Original ledger status
OVERDET.FLOOR.02
OVERDET.FLOOR.02
HARDENING THE UNCONDITIONAL FLOOR -- THE ASSUMPTION-MINIMAL COUNTING FLOOR (2026-06-29, v436): OVERDET.FLOOR.01 (v432) multiplies the counting census by SUBJECTIVE chance assignments (input-'8' independence 0.1^3, seed 0.012, kaon 0.15) a skeptic can contest; this module shows the 'is it numerology?' verdict does NOT rest on them. [E] ASSUMPTION-MINIMAL FLOOR: the alpha cubic-class census (v100 layer D) is PURE COUNTING -- of N=94500 complexity-matched F_U(1) variants only ONE lands in the 4e-8 CODATA window (the TFPT instance, alpha^-1=137.0359992), so p_alpha <= 1/94500 = 1.06e-5 ~ 4.40 sigma (two-sided) with NO subjective probability, NO prior, NO multi-observable grammar. [E] MONOTONE CONCESSION LADDER: -log10(p) full scorecard+alpha ~30.7 -> scorecard-only ~25.8 -> alpha-census-only ~4.98 (=4.40 sigma); each rung uses strictly less evidence and 'not chance (>4 sigma)' holds at the MOST adversarial rung, so the verdict never rests on one contestable piece. [E] INDEPENDENCE: strip ALL of v432's subjective factors (1.8e-6) and the floor is still the counting census 4.40 sigma -- they only SHARPEN an already-extraordinary floor. [C] HONEST 5-SIGMA GAP: the conventional 5 sigma line (p=5.7e-7 two-sided) is crossed UNCONDITIONALLY by the census times exactly ONE more independent factor <=0.054 (the input-'8' four-fold over-determination or one foreign witness), stated not hidden. [C] FIREWALL: bounds ONLY 'is it numerology?', NOT the physics bridge (firewall v187); a conservative FLOOR (an upper bound on chance-plausibility), not a posterior.
Recorded status: Assumption-minimal counting floor [E]/[C] (the alpha census 1/94500 = 4.40 sigma with no subjective probability; monotone concession ladder; independent of v432's subjective pieces; honest 5-sigma gap; hardens OVERDET.FLOOR.01)
Dependencies, status detail and source
Canonical status: [E] the pure-counting census floor (4.40 sigma), the monotone concession ladder, and independence from v432's subjective pieces; [C] the honest 5-sigma gap (one further independent factor <=0.054) and the bounded scope (numerology only, not the physics bridge). Hardens OVERDET.FLOOR.01 (v432) -- replaces its contestable subjective assignments with an assumption-minimal counting floor; closes nothing.
Dependencies: OVERDET.FLOOR.01; v100; v305; ALPHA.QUILLEN.EXACT.01; v187
Scripts: v436_overdet_floor2.py
Location: tfpt_safeguards
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